From June 13 to 14, 2025, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a joint missile and drone strike against Israel, codenamed \"True Promise Action III.\" Over 200 missiles and more than 100 drones were fired, targeting key areas such as Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Galilee. The strikes aimed at critical military facilities, nuclear research centers, and airbases.
01. A Wave of 200 Missiles Hit Israel, With 2000 More on the Horizon?
Videos circulating on social media revealed that, despite Israel’s defense systems being on high alert, the Iranian missile barrage breached their defenses with alarming ease. The Israeli air defense was quickly overwhelmed, as a significant number of Iranian missiles successfully struck their intended targets.
Strategically, this operation was Iran’s sweeping retaliation in response to Israel's previous actions, including the assassination of Iranian military and political leaders and attacks on their nuclear facilities. Iran’s supreme leader vowed to avenge these acts and expressed intentions to dismantle the Israeli government.
Given the geographical distance between Iran and Israel, military retaliation using ground forces or a weak navy was unfeasible, and Israel's air force could not be relied upon. Therefore, Iran's most efficient response weapon remained long-range ballistic missiles and large-scale suicide drones, which could strike Israel swiftly.
Experts observed that the missile attack displayed highly coordinated tactics. Multiple waves of missile strikes were launched in rapid succession, aimed at Israel’s domestic targets. This saturation attack neutralized Israel’s air defense systems. In the first wave of 45 missiles, seven successfully struck Tel Aviv’s military defense headquarters, igniting fires, while other missiles hit Galilee’s armored command center and intelligence analysis center.
On the night of June 13, Iran launched four separate attacks on Israel, with intervals as short as 1-2 hours and no more than 8 hours. These attacks combined ballistic missiles (ranging from 2000-3000 km, such as the \"Meteor-3\") and suicide drones (Shahid-136), overwhelming Israeli defenses. The following day, on June 14, Iran launched two more rounds of strikes, with reports suggesting over 150 missiles were fired, though U.S. media estimated the total to exceed 200 missiles in the six rounds.
For Israel, the failure to intercept these missiles came with significant economic repercussions. Israeli media reported that their primary air defense systems, such as the Iron Dome, cost around $50,000 per intercept, while the Arrow-3 missile defense system could reach up to $3-6 million per missile. In contrast, Iranian missiles are considerably cheaper.
If Israel were to intercept all 200 Iranian missiles, the cost would range between $1.5 to $2 billion, whereas Iran's cost to produce the same number of missiles is less than one-tenth of that. The situation became even more challenging when the volume of incoming missiles exceeded Israel’s intercept stockpile, forcing the military to prioritize high-population areas and abandon some military targets.
After this initial wave of attacks, the Iranian military issued a bold ultimatum to Israel, declaring that this retaliation was only the beginning. The next round would be ten times more intense, with Iran preparing to launch 2,000 missiles in a massive volley. Should this come to fruition, it would mark one of the largest missile attacks in history.
Experts emphasized that, in the face of such a super-saturation missile barrage, even countries like the U.S. or China would be unable to intercept them all. The current stockpile of Israel’s medium- and long-range interceptors—if it even reaches 1,500—would be insufficient to stop such a large-scale attack. In practice, Israel’s air defense system can only track and intercept a few dozen targets simultaneously, while the number of incoming threats could easily exceed this limit.
The first wave of 45 missiles from Iran was a clear example of this problem. Even with full air defense activation, over 10 missiles successfully breached Israeli defenses and hit their intended targets.
02. Can Iran Fire 2000 Missiles? Can Israel Defend Against Them?
If Iran were to launch a full-scale attack with 2,000 missiles, Israel’s air defense systems would likely be able to intercept only 20-30% of the missiles in the best-case scenario. The remaining 1,000 missiles would likely hit various targets across Israel. Given the scale of this missile assault, Israel currently lacks any effective countermeasure to deal with such a volume.
While Iranian media might exaggerate the scale of their missile capability as a form of psychological warfare aimed at intimidating Israeli civilians, there’s evidence that Iran is more than capable of launching a large missile attack. U.S. Central Command’s former head, General McKenzie, confirmed in 2022 that Iran had deployed approximately 3,000 ballistic missiles, some of which could strike Tel Aviv.
Three years later, Iran’s missile stockpile has likely surpassed 4,000. From 2024 onward, Iran has expanded its missile production capacity with 30 new facilities at its Hojir and Modarres industrial parks. According to analysts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Iran is producing between 200 and 300 missiles annually.
Iran has about nine types of missiles with ranges covering all of Israel’s territory. These include medium and long-range missiles, with a total stockpile estimated between 1,200 and 1,500. However, many of these missiles are outdated models that require on-site liquid fuel refilling, making their preparation time unpredictable. Furthermore, Iran’s mobile launch platforms and underground silos are subject to logistical challenges and must be moved frequently to avoid detection by Israeli air forces.
While Iran’s claim to be able to launch a massive 2,000-missile barrage is likely overstated, the country could still fire several hundred missiles in a single wave, which would be more than enough to breach Israel’s air defense systems. In fact, very few countries today could launch such a large-scale missile salvo. Iran is one of the few capable of executing a massive missile volley, and even a smaller-scale attack could have devastating effects on Israel's defense infrastructure.
This article draws from multiple sources, including Global Times, which reported on Iran’s actions and capabilities.
